37 Comments

1. 

   WOW, a surprise late night post from Harsh. Love it.

   As for the nominee herself, she is certainly qualified & I’m sure she will turn out to be a good judge. There were other more progressive nominees from Detroit of course but we know the new direction of this new WHC so not unexpected.

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2. 

   Still one more vacancy in this district. I know I (and others) have mentioned Michigan Court of Appeals Judge Noah Hood, who is young (1986).

   I tend to doubt he will get the current vacancy but if Eric Clay on the 6th circuit goes senior and Jonathan J.C. Grey gets elevated to replace him, I could see Hood getting that seat, as it was held by his mother, current
   Senior Judge Denise Page Hood, prior to Grey holding it.

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3. 

   The failed prosecution of Rajendra Bothra could be a big problem for McMillion. The doctor, who once worked with Mother Teresa, spent three years in jail awaiting trial before being acquitted. McMillion could be accused of incompetence or malicious prosecution.

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   • 

     I’m sure that will come up in her hearing. She’ll definitely need to be prepared to answer questions about that case.

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4. 

   Slow down, Harsh. It’s going to be a long summer and we’re going to run out of nominees.

   —
   Brandy McMillion: D all round
   Rejoice over this nomination all you want, but it’s so not worth the rage of Republicans, who are going to go hard on her for the failed prosecution.

   She may have prosecutorial immunity but this indictment under Trump won’t provide much of an immunity against just criticisms at her SJC hearing. There are 94 US Attorney’s offices in the country, the political heads at Central Justice can’t have meaningful input into every prosecution, especially one by a section chief. A vexatious prosecution resulting in a 3-year pre-trial detention is quite something.

   So, let’s do a quick round up.
   Not only has the quality of the latest batches of nominees drastically worse than the previous ones, these *aren’t* commensurately less controversial.
   Let’s do some basic equation:
   conventionality as a coefficient of confirmability: wasn’t this the whole rationale of the WH strategy?

   Again, I really really wish Dems would stop kidding themselves about judicial nominees Republicans could find acceptable. The only judicial nominees Republicans find acceptable are those made by Republican presidents of Republicans. Otherwise, Republicans will only barely tolerate a few made by Dem presidents. I will continue to laugh out loudly when these “conventional” nominations only get the same two or three Republican votes that better nominations get.
   Let’s keep enjoying the scraps.

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   • 

     Gavi, he still has 4 more already announced nominees to go through. Don’t forget about the Court of International Trade. You can wish that regarding Dems kidding themselves about judicial nominees Republicans could find acceptable (just look at Mitch here, naively thinking that Republicans in Arkansas and Oklahoma would agree to turn in blue slips for Democrats), but with the current crop of centrism that encompasses that party (which I thought you claimed to be), that isn’t going to change for at least a generation.

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   • 

     Let’s not exaggerate.It’s not a civil case so shouldn’t refer to criminal prosecution as “vexatious.”

     In the federal system we have magistrate and district court judges assigned to a case. If you don’t agree with the results there you can appeal.

     Our system of justice isn’t perfect but there are plenty of safeguards. If there are any improprieties you can file a section 1983 suit.

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     • 

       Perhaps that wasn’t the correct definitional use of the term, but it is fair to question aspects of any nominee who is being appointed to a lifetime position. Just because there are safeguards doesn’t mean that they will always be available for those who need them (e.g. the costs of appealing).

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     • 

       The Doctor was wealthy and deemed a flight risk that is why 6th Circuit denied bail.

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     • 

       I’m speaking more generally rather than about that specific case in terms of the safeguards, but you are correct on the basic facts.

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5. 

   Agree that this is another traditional/boring nominee -not particularly surprising since the Michigan senators have been pretty bad with judicial recommendations. I haven’t looked back, but I don’t think they’ve recommended anyone with a progressive or no traditional background?

   And to Gavi’s point, I don’t think Dems are actually expecting to get more than the Collins/Murk/Graham trio for most confirmations – they’re just nominating people that will clear that bar because otherwise it’ll be a 50-50 vote that requires every Dem senator and Harris to vote (since Manchin’s made it clear he’s voting against any remotely progressive nominee—especially any progressive nominee of color—in a futile attempt to save his own hide).

   I’d accept the above logic for district judges if it meant more progressive judges for the appellate courts, but I doubt that is going to happen. Honestly, the Dems should be following the Rikelman model and nominating more reproductive justice candidates because (1) emphasizing Roe/abortion rights is good politics for 2024, and (2) at least Collins/Murkowski’s (and thusManchin’s) votes are in play, especially if the nominee is a white woman like Rikelman.

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   • 

     Reproductive rights still isn’t a good play in West Virginia though, so unless the nominee has some corporate law ties like Rikelman or other traditional backgrounds, it is still somewhat risky to nominate abortion rights lawyers.

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6. 

   Bloomekatz, Evanson & Cartwright all received their commissions. Still waiting on Natasha Merle & Dale Ho.

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7. 

   This is absolutely spectacular news. This is who I wanted the Democrats to get to run against Blackburn. This seat is in play now. Now start running commercials showing Blackburn telling Andre Mathis he had a “rap sheet” because of three speeding tickets & please vote her out of office Tennessee.

   (https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1682525780398546944)

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   • 

     TN is nowhere close to being in play for the Senate. Blackburn doesn’t even need to campaign, she’ll win without a problem.

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     • 

       Any Republican is a favorite of course but don’t under estimate turnout. A lot of people don’t vote because they figure their vote won’t matter anyway. If you give people a candidate they think can win, we could see unprecedented turnout that could yield results once thought was impossible.

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     • 

       Blackburn won by double digits in 2018, and that was in a Democratic wave year with a popular former governor running against her. The math just isn’t there, sorry to say.

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     • 

       ATTN: Frank:

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee

       Reminiscent of the present, the 1994 election had a strong emphasis on judicial politics. Sasser’s support for John T. Nixon and Rosemary Barkett was used against him and helped to defeat him.
       But, of course, this doesn’t count, for one reason or another. (Notwithstanding, I agree that it’s Blackburn’s election to lose. But political/electoral “upset” is a well-known phrase for a reason.)

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     • 

       I have breaking news for you: We aren’t in 1994 anymore; and the state has trended rightward in the subsequent time period. I doubt even 1% of the TN population has ever heard of Andre Mathis. Blackburn could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and still win easily.

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     • 

       There you go! Right on time, too.

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     • 

       You and Dequan are only right in that of the voters who actually care about the judiciary, the majority of them will be voting for Blackburn because of the exact antics she pulled on Mathis, not in spite of them

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     • 

       Send that off too quickly and we still can’t edit/delete.

       I also meant to say that it’s dumb or disingenuous to call 2018 a “wave” election year for Dems in the senate. There were waves in some offices but by no means the United States Senate. It’s ridiculous to say that the party riding that wave also lost three seats and rode to defeat in that body.

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     • 

       That had everything to do with the Democrats having to defend seats in deep red states such as IN, MO, and ND. Nationally, the Democrats had a great performance, but that didn’t even get them within single digits in TN. Judging from Johnson’s campaign announcement, her campaign appears to be one giant grift.

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     • 

       Sooo, waves only happen in politically friendly places? Haha, ok

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     • 

       You are welcome to delude yourself that TN is in play, but the DSCC will put their resources towards races that are actually realistic.

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     • 

       It’s a long shot but I think it would be a worthwhile campaign. We need to see how voter attitudes have changed in the south on these mass shootings and abortion rights.

       I would also like to see Blackburn answer for the blockade of military nominees. I don’t think it will go over too well up there.

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     • 

       Blackburn isn’t the one blocking the military nominees. That would be Tuberville.

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     • 

       As Ed McMahon used to say “you sir are correct.”
       However, Blackburn has not indicated if she has told Tuberville that his hold is harming military families.

       It’s apparent that the GOP stick to a rule of not calling each other out outside of caucus meetings. Does Blackburn have more an obligation to the GOP or her constituents?

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   • 

     Surprisingly, I agree with Frank here—no one in politics thinks Johnson’s candidacy is even close to a game changer, as there just aren’t enough liberals/moderates in Nashville and Memphis to outweigh rural Tennessee. It’s better to focus on defending Brown in Ohio and Tester in Montana, and even Cruz in Texas is a better target than Blackburn in Tennessee—any effort to point out how racist she is will just backfire and win her more support (because she’ll cry victim and claim she’s being cancelled).

     Sure, maybe Johnson’s prominence will increase the chance of an upset from 0.1% to 1% and Dems might as well take a shot, but it would be political malpractice to invest resources in TN—especially when there are incumbents in less conservative states to defend.

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     • 

       Even more surprising then @Hank agreeing with @Frank is I completely agree with @shawnee68. I’ve been saying Democrats need to stop conceding senate races as soon as the primary is over. The one exception was last year in Utah because Independent Evan McMullin would have been light years better then Mike Lee.

       There’s no way Democrats shouldn’t invest in a widely known, left of center middle age White Woman to go against Blackburn. She is exactly the type of candidate that could pull off an upset (Like @Gavi said, they have the term upset for a reason).

       Democrats won’t run out of money to compete in other states. They will have enough. Even if it forces Blackburn to actually run a campaign, take her voters seriously & oh yea, miss a vote or two, then it would be worth it. And don’t underestimate the Black & liberal Tennessee vote that hasn’t had a reason to vote in a long time. The Republican legislatures underestimated the Tennessee voters resolve when they kicked out two young Black men from their seats, much to their peril.

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     • 

       “Democrats won’t run out of money to compete in other states. They will have enough.” This is not true simply because there is no way of knowing what is “enough” until after we have election results. As things stand right now, every dollar spent on Johnson would be better spent elsewhere.

       Sure, if Dems have enough resources to guarantee a win in Ohio, Montana, Texas, Florida, and West Virginia (four of which are more competitive than Tennessee, and Manchin has a proven record that Johnson does not), then throw a dollar or two at Johnson and see if anything happens. But there’s no way to know beforehand when spending no longer makes a difference—there’s always more staffers and canvassers a candidate could have hired or more ads that a candidate could have run. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if ads in particular have diminishing returns, getting Brown from a 47.9% chance of winning to 48.0% is still more meaningful than getting Johnson from a 1% chance of winning to a 5% chance.

       I don’t disagree with the belief that Dems should invest nationally. However, any logical actor knows to prioritize states where it will make a difference—there’s a reason you don’t see the RNC or McConnell’s PACs doing much for Republican Senate candidates in Massachusetts or Hawaii. Anyone who has paid attention to politics recently knows that Tennessee is the equivalent of those states for Dems no matter who manages to go viral on Twitter for a few weeks. I’d love to see Blackburn kicked out of the Senate as much as anyone on this blog, but people need to be realistic—there just aren’t enough Black and liberal voters in Tennessee to make up for the many white evangelicals right now, and Brown/Tester/Allred/even Manchin are better investments. No need to have a repeat of Amy McGrath or Jamie Harrison when Dems are underdogs in the Senate as it is.

       And the idea that Dems should spend money that could be used to defend deeply vulnerable incumbents so Blackburn will miss a vote or two is just…come on, let’s be serious here.

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     • 

       Absolutely co-sign sir, well said!

       I can’t even bring myself to think of the day a Democrat represents a deep south state in the senate in this highly partisan political climate we’re living in (Yes, I know Bill Nelson was a senator until 2018 and Doug Jones became a senator in a surprise upset in 2017… followed by an absolute shellacking in 2020, you get my point). A long-term Dem incumbent who is able to buck the state’s conservative lean to continuously win reelection every 6 years. Tester and Brown have been doing it but have been breaking a sweat since 2012, imagine what a Dem incumbent in Mississippi would have to accomplish to win reelection, yikes.

       But I can also see someone pointing out that Ossoff and Warnock won their senate seats in 2021 when the cards were stacked against them. Georgia still felt like a pink-tinted GOP state leading up to 2020, whereas Tennessee is as deep red of a state as one can find in the U.S. today. I’ve been hearing a lot about North Carolina being the next GOP state to swing to the Dems (ala Virginia) but I’ve yet to see that. Even Georgia is still an uphill battle for state Dems, Warnock can win reelection, but he has to really really campaign his butt off to win 51% to 49%.

       I see no reason to waste resources on Ms. Gloria Johnson when winnable races are there to at least keep the majority. If the polls look really bad for Manchin in WV, then Schumer should say his goodbyes to Manchin from now and put every single dollar into Montana and Ohio. You get another chance to flip Maine in 2026, so just aim to keep the senate 50-50 and go on offense next cycle. It’s a cute story having someone facing expulsion from the state legislature then transforming into a modern-day civil rights icon… but in no way, shape or form will that make her a viable candidate for senate in TENNESSEE. If Phil Bredesen couldn’t win a senate seat in a really good Dem wave year, Ms. Johnson cannot and will not.

       Put resources into winnable states and finally field rockstar candidates in states like North Carolina (eff you Cal Cunningham), Wisconsin, Montana, and Ohio.

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     • 

       Uuuggghhh… Why did you have to remind me of Cal Cunningham. Had he been able to keep his pants zipped up for another 4-5 months we could be having a totally different conversation right now… Lol

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8. 

   @dawsont825: I disagree that NC isn’t showing signs that it’s getable for the Democrats. Cooper won in 2016 and 2020 while Trump was winning the state, and it was the closest state that Biden didn’t win (49.9 v. 48.6).

   True, legislative maps (both state and Federal) are horribly gerrymandered and will get worse, with the loss of the state Supreme Court. But the new party chair has some of the same energy of Ben Wikler from WI. A narrow set of wins could go a long way.

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   • 

     I have to respectfully pushback on the notion that NC is a winnable state consistently for Dems on the federal level. A Dem winning the election to become governor is a BFD for state politics and whatnot, but don’t confuse that with federal elections when Dems always seem to fall short given all the hype. The best examples I can think of are similar partisan states electing moderate opposition party governors even though they’re solidly for the opposite party on election day for President and senate (Massachusetts – GOP Govs. Baker/Romney/etc., Kansas – Dem Govs. Kelley/Sebelius/etc., Kentucky – Dem Govs. Beshear Sr. & Jr./etc.,)

     I just respectfully think that NC is still a decade away from truly being in play like how Virginia swung to Obama in 2008 giving him the electoral college votes along with a newly elected Dem senator. Not to say that the DNC and the DSCC shouldn’t fund candidates to catch the GOP sleeping in a senate race there in the late 2020’s or so, just that it’s important to not get your hopes up waiting for that day that a Dem is elected senator there or the Dem nominee for president is competitive there (49%>). Money should definitely be spent there to help win seats in the legislature and help a Dem win the governor’s mansion, but don’t hold your breath to get a Dem senator.

     I don’t want to make the foolish comparison to Texas (the Dem’s white whale), but Texas is still 15-20 years away at the minimum. Way too many elderly white republicans firmly voting the party line along with the Mexicans that make it to the country and vote GOP (yes, I’m looking at you Florida Cubans) to flip that state or truly make the GOP sweat waiting for the election results.

     But I will say this one thing with as much confidence as I can muster…. The day that the GOP loses Texas in a presidential year, you’ll see a sudden change of the GOP’s social media mouthpieces in favor of abolishing the electoral college. Without Texas in that hypothetical election night stunner, and Pennsylvania becoming a slightly more Democratic-leaning state, the GOP has no path to 270 electoral college votes. Losing NC eventually will be a blow, but Texas is the absolute KO.

     But yeah, definitely disagree on NC. It’s on its way to being competitive and winnable for Dems on the federal level, but it’s still 2 presidential cycles away from being winnable. As close as Biden came to winning it in 2020, I still don’t see it being winnable just yet.

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     • 

       I’m hoping the GOP over plays their hand. If they go over board post Dobbs on abortion, immigration, school education (Teaching kids how Black people benefited from slavery, etc), anti-climate change while we are breaking temperature records every week, guns everywhere for everybody, anti-LGBT & defending Trump at all cost, all previously thought up timelines could be accelerated.

       Republicans over playing their hand is very much a possibility if not probability. GW Bush won re-election in 2004 with the Republican senate majority increasing (If I remember correctly to 54 or 55). 4 years later Democrats elected the first ever Black president & Democrats had a 60-40 senate majority. While a lot of that was a once in a generation candidate in Obama, it also had a lot to do with bad Republican candidates plus Republicans over playing their hand when they had power. The latter two can happen again.

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9. 

   I wouldn’t go that far on NC and TX. We know that swings can and often do happen quickly (see Georgia). They could be 20 years away or they could flip in 2024 or 2028.

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